4 Outlandish Internet Predictions for 2010
Most people release their predictions posts in December or early January. This is a bit later than most on purpose; so that the clutter can be a distant memory, the regurgitated nonsense that most people spew is erased from the palate and you can concentrate on some predictions that really count. We’d be foolishly arrogant to do such a thing without being able to back it up. Last year I predicted that ‘advertising will be put in the hands of the consumer’. Not only did Europe mandate the pre-behavioral ad preference setting, but Google preemptively launched their personal preference manager that allows users to limit or manage what data is shared for ad targeting purposes (amongst other things). Secondly, it was foreseen that the ‘room is about to get a whole lot nerdier’; Otherwise stating that technology would play a major part in the further progression of online media buying. It certainly did. Digg launched a form of ad crowd-sourcing, Media Exchanges have risen to higher levels of relevancy, and behavioral targeting has sparked controversy, debate, and excitement. With prognostication like that, who needs a crystal ball? Please enjoy, discuss, and debate our ideas for 2010!
1. The Search Bypass will become more of a reality—
As our living breathing world becomes more bionic and digitized, we can expect the laws of connectivity also to change. Search is and has been the top online activity for web surfers; would it be the case if the destinations themselves reached out into the living world and made a direct path to databases and interaction without search reliance? 2010 will bring about more connectivity in a live/dynamic world. The journalists will make their play with their version of the kindle, aggregating content that used to lay flat on a paper page, bringing it to life with interactivity and dynamic viewing experience. The boob-tube folks will be in the same light as Boxee and Apple look to enter the home through internet connected TV. For YouTube to remain relevant, they will also make a play for the home viewer. Small LCD screens can be acquired for about the cost of a box of organic cereal. Moore’s law tells us that cost will continue to trend downward. Expect your toaster in the near future to let your friends know that it is making toast at 9am.
2. Ecommerce will become more specialized—
Niche ecommerce will become a powerhouse in 2010. Everyone loves Zappos and Overstock, but they are now Walmart-esque in online stature. The counter-culturists will agree that the small business is always easier to cherish and become a loyalist of. Expect sites like Etsy, Ugly Sweaters, and other very niche e-commerce to carry limited lines of consumer goods and brand themselves as an authority of a very tight product collection. This won’t be restricted to layered distribution channels. Independent manufacturers will learn that it’s really not all that difficult to go direct to consumers through the web.
3. Google will suffer a dip in search share (as much as 10%)—
…but gain in the display advertising world. In the last half of 2009 Google made major strides in expanding upon their adwords platform to include the likes of behavioral marketing and retargeting. Though still in limited Betas, the behavioral channels will gain a greater foothold in 2010 with the Google exploration. When you can combine some of the best data with one of the most dynamic and relevant advertising opportunities, you are bound to have some success. Transparency may hurt the cause, but I expect big things from Google on the display front. Search will inherently lose the battle for media content (without much of a fight) to lower tier engines and search bypass devices. The effects will be nominal in the grand scheme of all things Google, but more significant than most expect.
4. Marketing gets smarter and dumber at the same time—
Let’s get real for a moment; the best marketing people in this world are those that are seasoned, deeply rooted in many facets of social science and human behavior, and groomed under the careful watch of big brands buying massive amounts of data. The internet is vastly comprised of upstart technologists that are well attuned to finding opportunities and exploiting them. Creative marketing strategy, behavior modification and corralling, and predictive advertising are all a great portion that have once been the major divide. Why else wouldn’t banner advertising have worked as well as TV 5 years ago (hundreds of other variables, but follow me down the rabbit hole anyways)? The difference was and is the creative quality. eMarketers are dumber than offline folk, in the loosest sense of the word. Not dumber by intelligence or education, dumber creatively. Enter the technology: With the advent of behavioral targeting, dynamic ad creation, crowdsourcing, and frightening analytics data, is now evening the playing field. This trend will continue as media exchanges continue to penetrate inventory previously isolated to only one network and networks themselves are chewed up, acquired, and spit out. Blog networks that have been working under the radar to drive affiliate monies or linking resource will be a hot commodity. The quickest way to leap a barrier of entry for publishers expanding will be through acquisition.
Indeed, Mr. Shoemaker, money doesn’t sleep.
